Bears and Dragons in the North

An Analysis of Sino-Russian Economic Relations in the Arctic

Abstract

The Arctic is rich with natural resources, such as natural gas, oil, and critical minerals, which have become increasingly more accessible due to climate change. Along with geopolitical tensions, many countries have included or are considering including the Circumpolar North in their strategy. As an Arctic state, Russia’s proximity to the region allows for easier access to these resources; however, Western sanctions and financial constraints have made it difficult to develop means of extracting these resources. This has caused Russia to turn to China, a self-declared “Near Arctic” state, which has been providing financial and technological support for these projects. In return, China seeks to gain energy supplies and expand its geopolitical influence through the Polar Silk Road, the Northern component of its Belt and Road Initiative. 

Sino-Russian economic relations are characterized by both cooperation and challenges. Although both countries benefit immensely from one another, mistrust for one another is shared by both partners. In particular, Russia is wary of China’s long-term strategic ambitions for the region, regarding Arctic governance and usage of the Northern Sea Route. This paper seeks to analyze this relationship by identifying factors for why the relationship exists, which helps determine what type of relationship this is, using the terminology of Martin A. Smith. The paper will also identify the challenges in the relationship and explain how Russia may interpret them as a threat to its Arctic sovereignty.